How to Choose the First European Country for B2B Expansion

The first decision in a European expansion is often framed incorrectly: “which country seems most promising?” The correct question is: which market offers the best balance of opportunity, accessibility, and risk for this company, at this time?

Portugal might seem like a natural fit due to its lower entry costs. Germany might attract with its scale. Spain might suggest cultural proximity. The Netherlands might appear to be a good logistical base. But none of these isolated advantages prove commercial viability.

Choosing the first European country requires comparing markets using common criteria and testing assumptions before scaling.

Why Intuitive Choices Often Fail

Intuitive decisions typically overvalue visible factors:

language;
population size;
GDP;
presence of acquaintances;
a one-off opportunity;
geographical proximity;
a generic perception that the market “is developed.”

These factors matter, but they don't answer whether there are buyers, if the problem is a priority, if competition leaves room, and if the operation can reach decision-makers with a sustainable economy.

Another mistake is treating an isolated contact or client as market proof. A single sale can be an exception. To justify expansion, it's necessary to understand if there's a replicable pattern.

Start with Strategy, Not the Country

Before comparing, answer:

What results does the expansion need to produce?
What product or service will be brought to market?
Which segment has the best fit?
Will sales be direct, through a partner, or a distributor?
What minimum ticket size sustains the operation?
What language, support, and delivery capabilities already exist?
How much time and budget are available for validation?

A company seeking industrial distributors needs different criteria than a SaaS platform that sells directly to marketing leaders.

The Market Selection Scorecard

A scorecard assigns weights and scores to the dimensions that truly affect market entry. The weighting should reflect the business model.

Criterion	Suggested Weight	What to Evaluate
Demand and Industry Concentration	20%	Quantity and density of relevant buyers
Problem Intensity	15%	Priority and cost of the solved problem
Competition and Differentiation	15%	Saturation, alternatives, and positioning space
Account and Decision-Maker Access	15%	Data availability, channels, and commercial openness
Regulation and Barriers	10%	Certifications, data, contracts, import, or licenses
Commercial Economics	10%	Ticket, margin, cycle, CAC, and service cost
Execution Capacity	10%	Language, support, presence, and operation
Ecosystem and Partners	5%	Possible distributors, associations, and alliances

The weights are not universal. For a manufacturer, regulation and logistics might be more important. For B2B services, access to decision-makers and proposal fit might be dominant.

How to Score Each Dimension

Demand and Industry Concentration

Don't just use population or GDP. Investigate:

number of companies in the sector;
distribution by size;
industrial regions or clusters;
investment in the category;
growth and formation of companies;
problem maturity.

Eurostat provides comparable data on business demography, economic activity, and digitalization. For deeper insights, national registries and sectoral associations help identify where companies are truly located.

Competition and Differentiation

Map local and international competitors. Observe:

promises used;
segments served;
proofs and case studies;
partners;
organic presence;
prices when available;
brand perception;
service gaps.

Markets without competition are not automatically better. Absence can indicate a lack of demand. The question is whether there is proven demand and a difference that the buyer values.

Account Access

Consider the ability to transform the market into a pipeline:

are target companies identifiable?
do decision-makers appear in public and professional sources?
are there industry events, associations, or communities?
can partners open doors?
is the purchasing structure centralized or fragmented?
is it possible to approach with legitimate context?

An attractive but inaccessible market can consume months without generating learning.

Regulation and Barriers

Access2Markets compiles information on tariffs, rules of origin, requirements, procedures, and trade conditions. For regulated products and sectors, this analysis should occur before any commercial campaign.

For digital services, topics include data protection, contracts, information localization, security, and sectoral requirements. Specific legal analysis should be conducted by qualified professionals in the destination country.

Commercial Economics

Model an initial equation:

probable average ticket;
margin after service and adaptation;
sales cycle;
cost to generate a meeting;
necessary conversion rate;
cost of partners or distributors;
time to revenue;
cost of local support.

The best market score can be nullified by an unviable economy.

A Hypothetical Example

Imagine a non-European industrial technology company comparing Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Germany.

Get the next articles by email

New content from Draivv, straight to your inbox. No spam.

Subscribe →

Portugal receives high scores for entry costs and operational ease but might have lower account concentration. Germany offers scale and industrial density but higher competition and language barriers. Italy might offer highly relevant industrial clusters but require a regional approach and partners. Spain might balance scale, accessible language, and cultural proximity.

The scorecard shouldn't answer “which is the best country in Europe?” It should indicate which market is most suitable for that offering and the available entry model.

Validate the Ranking in 90 Days

The scorecard generates a hypothesis, not a certainty. Before establishing a local structure, execute a pilot.

Days 1 to 30: Research and Preparation

validate data and sources;
map competitors;
select segments;
define ICP;
assemble account samples;
interview experts or partners;
adapt the value proposition.

Days 31 to 60: Access Test

approach a controlled sample;
test messages;
conduct interviews with buyers;
measure positive responses;
identify objections;
evaluate partner availability.

Days 61 to 90: Decision

compare markets;
review economics and cycle;
confirm or reject hypotheses;
choose channel;
define investment;
plan the next step.

Useful indicators include qualified responses, meetings held, perceived fit, recurring objections, time to access decision-makers, and commercial opportunities created.

When Portugal Makes Sense — and When It Doesn't

Portugal can be a good first market when:

language or cultural affinity reduces relevant friction;
there is sufficient industry concentration;
the company needs to learn to operate in the EU;
partners or relationships exist;
the ticket sustains the market size;
the Portuguese operation helps access other countries.

It might not be the best option when the category depends on large scale, when buyers are concentrated in other markets, or when the choice is based solely on convenience.

For companies choosing Portugal as their entry point, Draivv has a team in Porto supporting companies through internationalization, working close to the European market.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many countries should be included in the scorecard?

Typically, four to six markets are sufficient for the initial comparison. A larger universe tends to dilute the research.

Is it necessary to visit the countries before deciding?

Not necessarily in the first stage. Research, interviews, and remote pilots eliminate weak hypotheses. Visits become more meaningful when accounts, partners, and defined objectives exist.

Should the country with the largest TAM be chosen first?

No. TAM does not incorporate accessibility, competition, ticket, sales cycle, or operational capacity.

Does a commercial opportunity already validate the country?

No. It's a signal. Validation requires verifying if the profile and problem are repeated in a sufficient number of accounts.

Next Step with Draivv

Draivv structures the scorecard, researches markets, identifies accounts, and transforms the expansion decision into a commercial pilot. Learn about our Market Mapping service to choose where to invest with evidence, not just intuition.

How to Choose the First European Country for B2B Expansion | Draivv